I-Celtic Tiger - Iyaphuma, Noma isangena?

Izwi le-buzz ngasekupheleni kwawo-1990

I-Celtic Tiger - ukuduma kwakhe akuvamile ukuzwa eminyakeni yamuva, futhi iningi lase-Ireland likholelwa ukuthi lesi silwane esiseduzane nesiyaluyalu sizophela. Kodwa khumbula ukuthi asikhulumi ngento yangempela, inyama negazi, isilwane lapha. Kuye kwaba yilobula kuphela, umqondo ongeyenawo, kanye nokulwa kwempi okukhula okungakahleleki. I-Celtic Tiger (i-Ireland yayiyoba " i-Tíogar Ceilteach ", nakuba ingavamile ukusetshenziswa) yisikhathi sokugqoka umnotho okhulayo (ikakhulukazi) iRiphabhulikhi yase-Ireland eminyakeni kusukela ngo-1995 kuya ku-2000.

Lokhu kwakuyisikhathi sokukhula komnotho esingakaze senzeke - ikakhulukazi senziwa ngokutshalwa kwezimali kwangaphandle kanye nokufuduka kwezizwe eziningi ukuya e-Ireland njengesizinda esinezindleko eziphansi ukukhonza imakethe ye-EMEA (Europe - Middle East - Afrika). Esinye sezizathu eziyinhloko zokutshala izimali e-Ireland kwakungesilo olusemthethweni "labasebenzi abasha abafundele kakhulu" (amabhizinisi amasha amasha ayebonisa amaphesenti aphezulu kakhulu kwabokufika emsebenzini), kodwa izinga lentela elincane, intela yentela nokutshalwa kwezimali, kanye nethuba lokubandakanya "ukubalwa kwezimali", ngaleyo ndlela kukhulise ukugwema intela ngokusebenzisa i-Byzantine (kodwa esemthethweni) ilungiselelo lezinkampani ezisebenzisana.

Indlela i-Celtic Tiger eyazalwa ngayo

Phakathi neminyaka ye-boom yengxenye yesibili yama-1990, umnotho wase-Ireland wanda ngezinga elilinganiselwa ku-9.4% (phakathi kuka-1995 no-2000). Emva kwemicimbi eminingi eyingozi (isifo somzimba nesifo somlomo esonakalisa ukulima kwe-Irish kanye nokuvakasha, ukuqhuma okuvela ekuhlaselweni kuka-9/11, nokuthuthukiswa komhlaba jikelele), i-boom yahlushwa ngonyaka ka-2002, kodwa ngokuvamile yaqhubeka nenani lokukhula elilinganiselwa ku-5.9%.

Kumele kuqashelwe ukuthi ngaphambi kokushayeka kwakukhona isikhathi sokukhula kwangempela, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yobuchwepheshe bokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kanye nemikhakha yezokwelapha. Ngemuva kokudabuka, i-Celtic Tiger yaqala ukudla ngamafutha ayo aqoqiwe: okuthiwa yi-"bubble period" yafika, kanye (ikakhulukazi) ukwehla kwamanani entengo ehlinzeka ngemali ephezulu yokuthengiswa kwemali yentela, okwenza kube lula amazinga angenakulinganiswa wadala ngokuhlakanipha "ingcebo engenzeka" ngezikweletu ezikhulayo - ngokufingqiwe, uhlelo olukhulu lwePonzi.

Phakathi nalesi sikhathi, izinguquko ezinkulu zathinta umphakathi wase-Ireland: i-Ireland ngaphambi kokuba i-Celtic Tiger ingenye yamazwe ahluphekile kakhulu eNtshonalanga Yurophu - kuphela ukuba ibe yilabo abacebile kakhulu. Ngemali ukuyeka. Ukufakazela ukusetshenziswa kwemali yomphakathi ejwayelekile (kaningi ephrojekthi ephezulu kakhulu engenakho isidingo esingabonakali kubo, ngenkathi ingqalasizinda eyisisekelo efana nomkhakha wezezempilo inganakwa), ukunciphisa intela yonyaka wonyaka wonke, kanye nokunciphisa kwezimali okujwayelekile kwenkathi. Imali engenayo emakhaya isuka emazingeni angaziwa futhi angalindelekile, okuholela ekukhuphukeni okunamandla ekuqhathaneni kwabathengi, ngamaholide angaphandle, ukuzijabulisa okukhulu, izimpahla zokunethezeka (i-Ireland enezinga eliphakeme lalingamaphesenti angama-helikopta angasese e-USA ngesikhathi esisodwa) futhi. .. amacebo omhlaba. Emakhakheni omsakazo ka-2007 ahlanganisa imibhangqwana emisha ehlela ukuhlala emkhatsini we-multi-million portfolio portfolio eneminyaka engama-45 ubudala. Iphothifoliyo eyakhiwa ngemali yokukhokhela imali engu-110% ...

Ngenkathi igebe phakathi kwemindeni ephakeme kakhulu nephansi kakhulu engenayo isanda, ukungaqashwa kwahluleka kusuka ku-18% (1980) kuya ku-4.5% (2007, nangemva kokudonsa okukhulu kwabantu abavela eMpumalanga Yurophu). Isilinganiso semali yehora yezimboni sakhula, kanye ne-inflation (5% ngonyaka ).

Konke lokhu kuhlangene ukuqhubekisa amanani ase-Irish kuze kube njalo nangaphezulu kunamanye amazwe aseNordic abizayo , ngamazinga eholo efana ne-UK.

Ukufa kwe-Feline

Ngo-2008 i-Celtic Tiger yafa, ngokusho kukahulumeni wosuku ngokungazelelwe nokungalindelekile, ngokusho kwezinkomba ezincane ezinenkanyezi ngemuva kokugula okude nokugcina ... kanye neyezwe lonke, i-Ireland yawela emkhakheni wezomnotho. I-GDP inqunywe yi-14% kanye namazinga okungaqashwa aphakama abe ngu-14%, ngokufuduka kwamanye amazwe ngenxa yokuntuleka kwamathemba. I-Ireland yayibalwa phakathi kwama-PIGS noma ama-PIIGS (amazwe aseYurophu asePortugal, e-Ireland, e-Italy, eGrisi naseSpain). Futhi ihlaya elibi ngaleso sikhathi laliwukuthi umehluko phakathi kwe-Iceland ne-Ireland "yayiyincwadi eyodwa nezinyanga ezintathu" .. Ukuthola kuphela usizo oluvela emithonjeni yangaphandle kungenzeka uhulumeni agcinwe ...

Ekupheleni kuka-2013 i-Ireland iphinde ikwazi ukuzimela ngokwezimali ngokwezimali, kodwa i-Budget yase-Ireland yonyaka ka-2014 isabelomali esinqunyiwe (kanye nebhajethi esilandelayo ayitholi imithwalo yemithwalo), futhi ukukhishwa kabusha kwe-Celtic Tiger ngokuphumelelayo akunakwenzeka kakhulu.

Isihloko esithi Celtic Tiger Cubs

Isizukulwane esizalwe kulezi zindaba (noma okungenani sifinyelele ekuvuthweni ngaleso sikhathi) sivame ukubizwa ngokuthi "iCeltic Tiger Cubs". Isikhathi sokugqoka isizukulwane sase-Ireland esizalwe ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-1980 nango-1990, okwakhuliswa esikhathini esingakaze senzeke. Yikuthi, ngokwayo, akulungile - igebe eliphakathi kwabahola abaphezulu nabahola abaphansi likhulisiwe kakhulu phakathi nenkathi yeCeltic Tiger, nalabo abasesimweni esincishwe amathuba abazitholanga kahle kakhulu. Ukukhuluma ngokuqinile "I-Celtic Tiger Cubs" kufanele ibhekisele kulabo abazalwa okungenani "isizinda esiphakathi", njengoba kuchazwe imali engenayo ngaphezu kwanoma yini enye.

I-Celtic Tiger Cubs manje ibonakala njenge "isizukulwane esahlukana", mhlawumbe noma "isizukulwane esilahlekile". Njengoba ukhulile ngomqondo oqinile wokufaneleka, amalungelo amaningi alindelekile, nokukhulekela ukuthengwa kwempahla ebanzi. Njengoba engenakho okuhlangenwe nakho ("okwenzekayo kanzima") "izikhathi ezinzima" (umqondo owawukhona kuphela ezindabeni ezivela ezizukulwaneni ezidala), bahlaselwa ukwehla kwezomnotho njenge-fawn ngesitimela esisheshayo.

Inombolo ephezulu yeCeltic Tiger Cubs nayo yalahla izindlela ezijwayelekile zemisebenzi yokwenza imali esheshayo ngaphandle kwezizinda ezifanele zemfundo - eholela kwinombolo ephezulu yokungasebenzi engenamakhono athengiswayo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iziqu eziqukethe "ama-junk degrees" zivame. Njengoba i-Celtic Tiger igxila emlandweni wase-Ireland , kanjalo nezinkomo zakhe ...